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Thursday, March 6, 2014

UKRAINIAN POLITICS

UKRAINIAN POLITICS

For those who want a lot more information than Logan gives, I've gotten some information from my travel mentor who I have dubbed 'Evil Cat' in order to respect his privacy on line.

This is a copy/paste of some things he'd said on Facebook concerning various facets of 'what's going on here and what led up to it'.  Know that this is the kind of guy that major newspapers and such have requested interviews of but hey - he doesn't give interviews.  In short, he's probably one of the more qualified (through university, personal research and living there) and erudite people I've heard discuss these things.

David Holt:  Here's something you don't always see. Soldiers patrolling without any markings of nationality. These guys were photographed at Simferopol in Crimea securing the airport. The BBC reported that they might be pro-Russian militia.


Logan Horsford:  That's quite possible. I've heard rumor that the Crimea wants to form their own 'break away state' or some such. Lets ask Murlka Kisha (who is much better informed on these things than I) who they are. Are they goons for hire? Ukrainian military that couldn't afford uniform patches? Thugs?


David Holt:  The rhetoric from Moscow is similar to what was heard before the invasion of Georgia in 2008. The major difference now is that Ukraine knows that Russia is willing to invade, because of the example in Georgia.


Evil Cat:  Russia has no such pretext in Crimea...lack of political representation (as claimed by ethnic Russian speakers in Crimea) is a far cry from being bombarded by artillery and the ethnic cleansing instituted by the Georgians in 2008...Politically so far the Crimean parliament has been dissolved and referendum is slated for May 25 (Same date as Presidential elections) to vote for increased autonomy for what is already the Crimean Autonomous region. The vote was carried by the ProEU-Maidan supporters, the ethnic Tatars of Crimea, AND the moderate ethnic Russian bloc.

It is the vocal yet small Russian Nationalists who were defeated on a call for separatism. However it is a marriage of convenience on the referendum vote..The Tatars are not such supporters of the Maidan/EU bloc, they are looking for increased autonomy for themselves. Maidan/EU supporters are willing to give the Tatars more autonomy if it keeps Ukraine whole...The moderate Russian bloc know that economically the EU is the better bet but don't wish the Ukrainianization that they fear will follow if the Nationalists win the presidency and parliament...so they are willing to wait to see at least see what the outcome of the elections and referendum will be

There is only a small minority of ethnic Russians who wish to return Crimea to Russian rule...in the 3 years I was in Sevastopol I never met anyone whole supported Russian Rule... Independence and pro Russian policies? Yes but not rule. People basically want to keep the Russian Naval Base (40% of the economy) and keep the Russian 'nature' and history of the city.The 60% ethnic Russians in Crimea do not want to be dictated to by Nationalists in Kiev.

As for these armed sentries at the airport they are either Ethnic Russians formed into a self defense militia...or possibly marines from the Russian Naval Base on emergency deployment and requested by the Pro Russian Mayor of Sevastopol....In Simferopol (the administrative capital of Crimea) they will be either self defense units or anti-Nationalist soldiers from the Ukrainian Army...remember centralised control of the armed forces is in force in Ukraine but perhaps rather sketchy in the Autonomous region of Crimea.

Up until 2 years ago there was no civilian airport in Sevastopol...they renovated a soviet era airbase...the fear will be that Kiev will send military units by air to suppress Sevastopol thus the pro Russians are making a show of securing the airport....its the only way into Sevastopol quickly from Kiev


David Holt:  Thank you for that excellent detailed information.

I don't believe that the Russians have anywhere near the pretext for invasion that they had in Georgia in 2008. It would be like comparing apples to oranges.

Russia is, however, taking many of the same steps they took prior to that invasion. They've offered dual Russian citizenship to ethnic Russians in Ukraine ("protection" of whom can act as a pretext for invasion), and they've declared large scale military exercises in Russia's Western and Central military districts.

The message that invasion is at hand is very clear. Hopefully the threat of invasion is the only objective. A display of power, rather than the prelude to an exercise of power.

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, directly across the Black Sea from Ukraine and under alarmingly similar circumstances. They tore the place up, destroyed Georgia's military infrastructure, and generally shat all over the place.

What they do not have in Ukraine that they did have in Georgia was a clear pretext for invasion. Russia has a reason to invade Ukraine, but lacks a justifiable pretext. At the moment.


Evil Cat:  The main motivation behind the Georgian conflict was the Russian desire halt Georgia's move towards NATO under Saakashvili. Russia only 'invaded' the Ethnic Russian parts of Georgia that were already autonomous regions within Georgia and were former autonomous Republics within the USSR...its not like they invaded the core Georgian SSR. ...and Logan if you don't recall anytime since WW2 maybe you missed Hungary in 56, Prague in 68, and Afghanistan in 79...these invasions were based on an 'invitation' by fraternal communist parties for military assistance and intervention.

The current Russian exercises are for the domestic Russian audience who have been whipped into a anti fascist frenzy with by the bias media in Russia...as if Russia is ready to go!...If the referendum somehow managed to produce an separate independent Crimea then that new government would 'invite' Russia to provide security...not technically an invasion then..It would be difficult for Ukraine to dislodge the Russians since Crimea (under a democratic mandate) would have extended an invitation to Russia...The rest of the world probably would not recognise Crimean independence but Ukraine could not stop it without a war...that they would lose and cannot afford.


I'd then asked Evil Cat what would happen next.  He said it's anybody's guess but believes we won't find out until May when they have elections and such.
According to Dave Holt, I am everywhere.  Thanks for putting me in this now very awkward picture, David.

And I'm apparently the 'man on the ground' here.
Poor Bogart looks like "Even after I have been dead for close to sixty years I'm still forced to be in a picture with Logan?  And he's upstaging me?"



LOGAN'S VIEW

I don't know much about politics but have begun to suspect that Ukraine's position may have become untenable.  They are wanting to get Russia out while 'maintaining good neighbor relations' with Russia.  They want to be friendly with the EU while not joining.
What a difference one month makes!


Ukraine for Ukrainians seems to be what may people want here.

But if you don't have a strong military and are wedged between two giants I'm not sure if that is realistic.

It may come down to 'pick one and commit'.

But the Ukrainians are so internally divided if a vote was held tomorrow there may be a three way split.

And the crappy leaders they have put into power and will put into power don't seem to be helping matters.

It will be quite awhile before this stuff is resolved.  I will make a prediction that the election will not suddenly make everything better.  In fact, I predict that there will be a kick off of some sort of new trouble as two thirds of the country won't be happy with the vote.
Well, shit.  Here comes Russia!



FUCK CNN

While I was eating, a Russian guy was watching CNN on his computer.

Logan: "You realize it is the worst of all American news?"
Guy: "It is my favorite. They do great disinformation."

On CNN, they were making various statements that I will now translate:

"The situation is complicated."
Translation: CNN doesn't understand the situation.

"The president should have made a more bold statement."
Translation: We don't know what he should have said but this one was barely news worthy.

"...in the Baltic Sea..."
Translation: We don't know geography. Black Sea, Baltic Sea - it's all the same, right? Hell some of our viewers can't even find Canada on a map - that is so far away they're not going to know any better.

IMO if you watch or listen to CNN, you deserve it.

Here is some new ramblings that didn't make it on to Facebook for those who think the blog has fast become a recap of the stuff I've previously released on Facebook.  Which may be.

Revolutions last a long time.  Months or even years.  If one can stay in the press for a whole month, they're doing pretty well.  I believe a lot of press agencies love nothing better than to help stir up trouble - for as long as it does their circulation good then they piss off to what is new and interesting.  This leaves the people like those from 'Arab Spring' to try to sort out the pieces.

Unethical.




ENDORSEMENTS

From Kevin DeJaynes:  Logan you are the type of guy who would invite someone over for a fun night of drinking after shave and playing pin the tail on the "almost fresh" corpse of a dead hooker. When the building catches on fire after an unfortunate accident involving the last bottle of aftershave, a prison shank and a flame thrower made from a super soaker squirt gun, a gallon of jet fuel and a butane torch you would get caught red handed by agents of the local law enforcement. You would then be taken for questioning and after three days of interrogation you would be released because 9 on the people who questioned you committed suicide via auto erotic asphyxiation. Soon afterwards you would publish an article on your blog stating how much 7 bottles of aftershave cost. Its a special kind of insane my friend, a special kind.


Another one from Kevin DeJaynes:

Logan Horsford is a world traveler, not because of some noble sense of adventure, not because he has a need to enrich himself by experiencing other cultures and not because he was gifted with an endearing wanderlust. No Logan travels the world because he feels the need expose all of civilization to his depraved and immoral outlook on life. Be warned Earth, something wicked this way comes and its name is Logan.


If you would like to write something like this, send it to my Facebook or put it in the comments on the blog.  If I like it, I'll stick it in the blog and give you credit.



FOR SOME GOOD READING

Check out THIS article.



MEME

At last, a meme which has been saying what I've been trying to tell people for years:
It's good advice.







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{{2011}} London, GB | Rail N Sail | Amsterdam, Netherlands | Prague, Czech Republic | Budapest, Hungary | Sarajevo, Bosnia | Romania | Chisinau, Moldova | Ukraine: Odessa - Sevastopol | Crossed Black Sea by ship | Georgia: Batumi - Tbilisi - Telavi - Sighnaghi - Chabukiani | Turkey: Kars - Lost City of Ani - Goreme - Istanbul | Jordan: Amman - Wadi Rum | Israel | Egypt: Neweiba - Luxor - Karnak - Cairo | Thailand: Bangkok - Pattaya - Chaing Mai - Chaing Rei | Laos: Luang Prabang - Pakse | Cambodia: Phnom Penh | Vietnam: Vung Tau - Saigon aka Ho Chi Minh City

{{2012}} Cambodia: Kampot - Sihanoukville - Siem Reap - Angkor Wat | Thailand: Bangkok | India: Rishikesh - Ajmer - Pushkar - Bundi - Udaipur - Jodhpur - Jasalmer - Bikaner - Jaipur - Agra - Varanasi | Nepal: Kathmandu - Chitwan - Pokhara - Bhaktapur - (Rafting) - Dharan | India: Darjeeling - Calcutta Panaji | Thailand: Bangkok - again - Krabi Town | Malaysia, Malaka | Indonesia: Dumas - Bukittinggi - Kuta - Ubud - 'Full Throttle' - Gili Islands - Senggigi | Cambodia: Siem Reap | Thailand: Trat | Turkey: Istanbul | Georgia: Tbilisi

{{2013}} Latvia: Riga | Germany: Berlin | Spain: Malaga - Grenada | Morocco: Marrakech - Essauira - Casablanca - Chefchawen - Fes | Germany: Frankfurt | Logan's Home Invasion USA: Virginia - Michigan - Indiana - Illinois - Illinois - Colorado | Guatemala: Antigua - San Pedro | Honduras: Copan Ruinas - Utila | Nicaragua: Granada | Colombia: Cartagena | Ecuador: Otavalo - Quito - Banos - Samari (a spa outside of Banos) - Puyo - Mera

{{2014}} Peru: Lima - Nasca - Cusco | Dominican Republic | Ukraine: Odessa | Bulgaria: Varna - Plovdiv | Macedonia: Skopje - Bitola - Ohrid - Struga | Albania: Berat - Sarande | Greece: Athens | Italy: Naples - Pompeii - Salerno | Tunisia: Hammamet 1

{{2015}} Hammamet 2 | South Africa: Johnnesburg | Thailand: Hua Hin - Hat Yai | Malaysia: Georgetown | Thailand: Krabi Town | Indonesia:
Sabang Island | Bulgaria: Plovdiv | Romania: Ploiesti - Targu Mures | Poland: Warsaw | Czech Republic: Prague | Germany: Munich | Netherlands: Groningen | England: Slough | Thailand: Ayutthaya - Khon Kaen - Vang Vieng | Cambodia: Siem Reap

{{2016}} Thailand: Kanchanaburi - Chumphon | Malaysia: Ipoh - Kuala Lumpur - Kuching - Miri | Ukraine: Kiev | Romania: Targu Mures - Barsov | Morocco: Tetouan

{{2017}} Portugal: Faro | USA: Virginia - Michigan - Illinois - Colorado | England: Slough - Lancaster

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